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  • George V market heats up on ebay

    Hello all,

    I am sure it has not missed the attention of serious collectors amongst you that the George V coins of high class that Greg Marguli listed and sold over the weekend on ebay went for high prices.

    Particularly a 1928 Shilling MS61 that fetched $4200 and an MS65 1927 Penny (shared pop1) that unexpectedly was taken off before the auction's end in the face of many bids. In an explanatory email to me later it seems that the consignor to Greg accepted a bid that was in excess of $3000.

    Seeing that there is such a scarcity of high grade South African Coinage in the George V and ZAR area, collectors are obviously getting desperate to get the best and will pay whatever they can afford.

    Geejay


  • #2
    George V is going places!

    Two 1928 Shillings in AU 55 recently sold for R4,902.00 and R4,617.00 respectively on Bid-or-Buy, so R30 000 for a MS61 is a good price but certainly not unexpected.

    Another recent winner on BoB was a 1923 Two-Shilling in MS62 that went for R26,500.00.

    It looks like in really top MS grades, there are no stopping George V coins, but I think there might be a slow down in some coppers, like the 1923 Pennies - only my opinion though.

    Pierre

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    • #3
      Hi, saw another auction that is current for a complete proof set, estimate 1000- 1200 sterling. Hold thumbs.

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      • #4
        what would the coin look like that was sold on eBay?


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        • #5
          1928 1/ ms61 (pcgs)

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          • #6
            1927 1d MS65BN (PCGS)

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            • #7
              There is no comparison between a coin such as the 1923 1D and these other examples. The 1923 by any standard is a common coin. The NGC census has over 300 of them and most in mint state. And most likely, there are several hundred or even a lot more of this coin still available in high grade to be graded. It does not differ that much in this respect from a coin such as the 1892 1D. I still see the 1892 raw all the time in MS.

              As for the prices of these coins, its hard to make an accurate evaluation without actually seeing them in person. But based strictly upon the grades, I am going to make the same comments I have before. Versus the better grade AU (AU-55 or AU-58), these that are LOW grade MS coins are overpriced. MS-62 and MS-61 are not high grade or better MS coins, they are LOW grade MS.

              A price multiple of six for the 1928 1/ in MS-61 versus AU-55 is not a reasonable premium. Its not a reasonable premium for this coin and its not one for any coin. If anyone believes that it is, I would like to see other examples where the same or a similar price structure exists for these grades elsewhere. Outside of South Africa Union and ZAR, I have never seen it though I admit that the limited availability of graded coins other than for the United States makes a direct comparison somewhat problematic.

              But in the US, no knowledgeable collector would normally pay that kind of a price difference for grades like this. And this is even true for the few US coins which are of comporable scarcity.

              Since there is no absolute value, there are two conclusions everyone can draw from my statements. Either the higher graded coins are overpriced or the lower graded coins are underpriced. Maybe its some of both. But I see no doubt that these AU coins, some of which look BETTER than an MS-61, are much better values at current prices. Using an arbitrary cut-off between MS coins and those below it makes no sense at all in assessing scarcity or how much too pay. There are several coins which have a decent number of specimens in AU-55 or AU-58 even though they have few in MS while most of these MS are in grades such as these. The fact that there may be a handful for MS coins while ignoring the larger number of possibly high quality AU specimens is an arbitrary measure for even conditional scarcity.
              Last edited by jwither; 17-11-10, 05:14.

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              • #8
                thanks guys, much appreciated.


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                • #9
                  It is all in the ratios

                  Sorry but I must have missed your post.

                  I am not sure if some of your comments are directed at me, but here are some replies...


                  Originally posted by jwither View Post
                  There is no comparison between a coin such as the 1923 1D and these other examples. The 1923 by any standard is a common coin. The NGC census has over 300 of them and most in mint state. And most likely, there are several hundred or even a lot more of this coin still available in high grade to be graded. It does not differ that much in this respect from a coin such as the 1892 1D. I still see the 1892 raw all the time in MS.
                  Yes, and the recent discovery of the hoard of 1923 pennies will not help either - I see no growth here on the short or medium term.

                  Originally posted by jwither View Post
                  As for the prices of these coins, its hard to make an accurate evaluation without actually seeing them in person. But based strictly upon the grades, I am going to make the same comments I have before. Versus the better grade AU (AU-55 or AU-58), these that are LOW grade MS coins are overpriced. MS-62 and MS-61 are not high grade or better MS coins, they are LOW grade MS.
                  You must have misunderstood me - or rather I did not express myself well. Obviously MS 61 and MS 62 are not high MS grades, but they are high coin grades - ANY MS coin is a high grade - that was what I meant.

                  Originally posted by jwither View Post
                  A price multiple of six for the 1928 1/ in MS-61 versus AU-55 is not a reasonable premium. Its not a reasonable premium for this coin and its not one for any coin. If anyone believes that it is, I would like to see other examples where the same or a similar price structure exists for these grades elsewhere. Outside of South Africa Union and ZAR, I have never seen it though I admit that the limited availability of graded coins other than for the United States makes a direct comparison somewhat problematic.
                  This is were things get rather technical - and where I both agree and disagree with you - let me explain ...

                  Say for instance the ratio between a certain date MS and the same date AU coin graded by NGC is 1:10 - for every (just for example) MS coin, there are 10 in AU condition graded. Let's say that is the norm - on average the ratio is 1: 10 for that series and denomination - lets say George V SA Shillings...

                  NOW, for some or other unexplained reason - for a certain date - lets make it 1928 - the ratio is 1:20 - that is DOUBLE the norm.

                  Lets go back to the norm of all the OTHER shillings being 1:10 - here one would pay say a premium of X for a MS above a AU coin, BUT for specifically the 1928 date one would pay MUCH MORE for a MS compared to a AU because of the ratio difference compared to other GV shillings.

                  I hope to do a small study this coming December holidays regarding these ratio's (MS vs. AU) and prices realized - so then one would know if this is really true. The problem is obviously the small universum size(s) and I also have no access to PCGS PoP reports - maybe someone can help me out here with some stats?

                  Originally posted by jwither View Post
                  Since there is no absolute value, there are two conclusions everyone can draw from my statements. Either the higher graded coins are overpriced or the lower graded coins are underpriced. Maybe its some of both. But I see no doubt that these AU coins, some of which look BETTER than an MS-61, are much better values at current prices. Using an arbitrary cut-off between MS coins and those below it makes no sense at all in assessing scarcity or how much too pay. There are several coins which have a decent number of specimens in AU-55 or AU-58 even though they have few in MS while most of these MS are in grades such as these. The fact that there may be a handful for MS coins while ignoring the larger number of possibly high quality AU specimens is an arbitrary measure for even conditional scarcity.
                  I agree 100% - I would much rather have a nice AU55 in my collection with a superb strike and color (but minimal wear), that an Ugly Duckling MS with no wear but a soft strike and a "not nice" eye appeal ...

                  Regards

                  Pierre
                  Last edited by Pierre_Henri; 19-11-10, 21:20.

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                  • #10
                    High George V prices in 2010 ...!

                    By the way ...

                    If I add up the highest prices realized for a ...

                    Farthing
                    Half Penny
                    Penny
                    Tickey
                    Sixpence
                    Shilling
                    Florin ... and
                    Half Crown

                    ....in the George V series on Bid-or-Buy this year (2010) - that is ONLY eight (8) coins - the combined total price paid for that 8 coins is


                    (scroll down...)

                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .
                    .

                    R262 604.00

                    Yes - for only 8 coins - here on Bid or Buy - this year! That is more than a quarter of a million rand for only eight George V coins!

                    Isn't that just amazing? - and NOT ONE of them was in proof condition!

                    Pierre
                    Last edited by Pierre_Henri; 19-11-10, 21:16.

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                    • #11
                      Regarding top ZAR Prices ...

                      Good grief - I just did a Bid-or-Buy search regarding the combined top price(s) paid for the ZAR series (Penny to Crown) this year (2010)

                      For the seven (7) top ZAR coins (one in each denomination - Penny to Crown) on BoB this year - R249 782 was paid -

                      The Union of South Africa George V series obviously have the Farthing (Quarter Penny) and Half Penny added that the ZAR Paul Kruger series do not have but then it (ZAR) have the Crown that the George V series does not have...

                      Whatever - very much the same for the combined amount for the top coins paid (non-gold coins) in both series - a quarter of a million give or take a bundle of notes!

                      Wonder what 2011 will hold for us?

                      Hopefully even BETTER news for South African coin collectors!

                      Pierre
                      Last edited by Pierre_Henri; 19-11-10, 21:41.

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                      • #12
                        Pierre,

                        I actually was not specifically directing my comments at you, though I suppose in retrospect it seems that way.

                        The point I was trying to make is that just because a coin is graded mint state in an NGC or PCGS holder does not make it either a better coin or a better "investment".Yet judging by the prices you quoted and others which anyone can check for themselves, this is exactly what most collectors and "investors" think.

                        Mint state coins which are a 63 or higher are presumably always better than AU-58 (or AU-55) but those in MS-60 to MS-62 frequently are not. I recently sold an NGC AU-58 1928 shilling for much less than this price (to my sorrow I might add). But if I were to show both coins to anyone, most collectors I believe would prefer mine to this one if both coins were raw or if they could be bought at the prices you quoted. The simple reason for this is that the coin that I owned does not have all the "clutter' in the obverse fields which this MS-61 has. Most collectors I do not think would even think that the one I owned was not mint state outside of the holder. Given the relative merits between these two coins, how does it make sense to pay up to six times more for a coin which is actually inferior? The only thing "better" about this MS-61 is that the number on the slab is higher. My response to that is, so what?

                        I do agree that the MS-61 should sell for more, but that is only because the resale market places a premium on the grade. Otherwise since the coin is otherwise inferior, it should not.

                        As for the analysis you described on what is "reasonable" versus not, there are two ways of looking at it. I evaluate value from both an economic and numismatic standpoint. No one has shown any interest at all, but I can describe the methodology I use and then everyone can commnet on it. I could do so in another post.

                        From my stanbpoint, I would not agree that any MS-61 should sell for six times (or more) than an AU-55 or AU-58 even if there were 10 or 20 times more of them than in MS. The relative merits between the two coins do not justify it regardless of the census population. That is the same kind of thinking which exists in the prices of actual conditional rarities which is why so many of them sell at the absurd prices they do, both in South Africa and in the United States.

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                        • #13
                          Overlooked 1934 Six Pence MS65 on Ebay.

                          The 1934 Six pence that was on offer by the same seller in my opinion was overlooked by most bidders. I base my reason on the fact that should one want to built a Mint state set from MS63 and higher, there is only a probability of 6 potential sets that can be built since there is only 6 each 2s and 2/6 coins between NGC and PCGS in MS63 and higher. The MS65 Six pence is third best known sharing with one coin at NGC, One MS66 at PCGS and one MS67 with NGC, this makes it four coins in highest grade than could have been taken up in one of the potential 6 potential sets. For the grade the bidding on the item was not as fierce as I suspected it to be. With 12 bidders and only a total of 15 bids, the winner got this item at a very reasonable price at US$ 1535.00

                          18039918..jpg


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                          • #14
                            $1535 is a reasonable price for the 1934 6D but there are going to be others that have not been graded which will be added to that census count in the future. The idea that most high grade coins are currently included in the census in most instances is wrong.

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                            • #15
                              Hello everyone,

                              Itís very pleasing to see all the buzz surrounding our GEOV coins especially since many collectors out there assume there are hundreds if not thousands still to be graded and that will attain MS grades. The truth is that there are very few left to grade that shall attain MS grades. I personally oversee some of the finest and most extensive Union collections in the world. I have a database covering about 75% of all the MINT STATE GEOV coins that are currently graded by the NGC & PCGS which tells me who currently owns a particular coin, crossovers from PCGS to NGC which have not been adjusted, regrades at the NGC that were broken out of the slab before resubmitting & other facts which are hard to come by even in todayís' age. It covers approximately 2,100 coins that are GEOV & MINT STATE. Based entirely upon this database and the portfolios I oversee but excluding my extensive research into this series, I can quite comfortably state that anyone who believes that there are still many GEOV coins that will grade MS out there has missed the boat and its too late to catch up.

                              Of the 1923 Pennies graded, how many are break outs and resubmissions? A lot more than anyone would believe and to assume there are still hundreds to come is fantasy.

                              The 1928 shilling will perhaps reach a mint state pop level of 10 coins but I seriously doubt it and how many of you actually know that the PCGS MS64 specimen does not exist anymore because it is now a NGC MS64 because it was crossed over a while back which means the pop stats should read 6 MS coins & not 7? Furthermore owning a MS61 specimen is exactly what it is i.e. a specimen that has not suffered any wear at all and regardless of how it looks it remains more treasured than a coin which was perhaps slid across a table by accident and therefore suffered wear. To all numismatists mint state will always be the holy grail and AU unfortunately is only tops if you are referring to such letters in terms of what they symbolize in the periodic table i.e. GOLD or whose initials they represent namely mine ALEX URIZZI. One must also remember that AU58 for example, is as close to MS as is possible so the relationship between a MS specimen (say between 60 to 63) and an AU58 specimen must not be as far apart as we see here in SA. Hopefully this will change in time but for now this is how it is.

                              The 1928 Shilling MS61 mentioned herein was sold for $4,200 US which equates to about R30, 000. I just sold my MS62 specimen for R60, 000 and some change!! Many of these coins are never seen being sold online or at bricks & mortar auctions, they are sold behind closed doors for big money to serious buyers who know what they are doing.

                              Anyone using Herns' catalogue for any purpose other than reference when it comes to GEOV coins is going to find themselves in the same boat as those who are wishing they had listened to what I was telling them 4 years ago!! Here are some examples: Please note that the values stated below for the 2010/11 catalogue are being used for comparative purposes to illustrate my point and should not be deemed as being in line with my values for such coin. My 2006 prices were in certain cases heavily suppressed by the catalogue values at the time.





                              As you can see the value increases that can be seen from the 2006 catalogue to the 2010/11 catalogue are huge and smack of someone trying to catch up on all the price suppression given over the last 10 years. The downside to such huge increases is that serious intelligent numismatists & collectors from overseas, such as jwither, become suspicious of the entire coinage series and its values which can result in them discontinuing their interest in such coins. For me it is very satisfying seeing a 'numismatist' scramble to fix his errors and still not get it right.

                              Cheers
                              Alex
                              Last edited by ALJADA; 21-11-10, 00:38.
                              When in doubt knock 'em out!!

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